Us Tariffs May Pare India’s FY26 Real GDP Growth by up to 0.3%: Economists

Us President Donald Trump’s Tariffs will pay India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth for Fiscal 2026 by a range of 0.2% to 0.4% to 0.4%, According to Forecasts by Economistssts.

The bank of Baroda Research Cut Inflation Adjusted GDP Growth Rate Estimates to come in at 6.6%, down from the union budget forecast of 6.8%.

Going by the budget document, the real gdp for India would have been ₹ 200.7 lakh Crore. The tariff effect would reduce this to ₹ 200.3 Lakh Crore, as it would grow at a slower 6.6%, according to bob estimates.

Barclays trimmed estimates to 6.5%, which would mean that GDP would be further lower at ₹ 200.1 Lakh Crore.

On Inflation, Researchers at Bob Said it was expected to be caused by exchange rate Volativity and the Effect would larger be on the which salary price index (wpi) infection.

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“Our analysis showed that a 10% depreciation in INR can lead to a ~ 0.12-0.16% Increase in WPI in the Short Run, and 0.38% -0.49% in the long-run.”

On Monetary Policy, Economists at Elara Securities Expect RBI to Cut Rates by 50 Basis Points in FY26.

The ministry of commerce, in a statement, assured that options are being examined and economists too experts the position from the possibility of negotiations with the us this is expected to mitigate Tarifs.

The tariffs are expected to Hit 9-11% of India’s expenses to the US, according to the economists.

This includes electronics, precious stones and machinery besides readymade garments, according to bob. These sector constitute a large share of small and medium enterprises, bob said.

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Economists at Barclays, However, Estimated a Higher Share of 11% of Exports Being Hit.

India’s Exports to the Us Walued at About ₹ 6.4 Lakh Crore in Fy24, The latest for which full-yar data is available with the ministry of commere and industry. A Tenth of this (assuming the higher estimate made by bob research) would mean a Dip in expenses of about ₹ 64,000 Crore.

UP to January 2025, India’s expensts to the us at ₹ 5.76 Lakh Crore, which is alredy 2.4% lower than the same period in fy24, without accounting for the tariff effect. The 10-month expert number covers more than 90% of the full year numbers. Tarifs would have expenses to the us by ₹ 57,000 Crore.

Tariffs would also also have company earnings in India as expert turnovers can reduce and companies might have to cut prices for competitive edge, bob research said. “This is something which banks would also need to monitor giving his expenses to these sectors,” it added.